Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 56.664002 63.092850 70.403199 79.434276 90.439587 103.618681 120.921116
2025-01-26 49.696167 58.426323 69.301082 84.257944 105.029411 134.147499 180.854749
2025-02-02 45.970338 56.060517 69.450761 89.392099 120.144945 169.706123 267.123535
2025-02-09 42.211381 52.778573 67.435304 90.570744 129.279348 199.477734 367.410662
2025-02-16 38.790137 49.384493 64.563629 89.608008 134.325843 224.050866 483.902692
2025-02-23 35.970189 46.460585 61.891173 88.306077 138.203137 248.102771 636.960154
2025-03-02 33.395354 43.608548 58.936144 85.940698 139.323130 266.633032 813.768982
2025-03-09 31.404106 41.428613 56.760205 84.527891 141.938967 290.671635 1097.294227
2025-03-16 29.151202 38.673053 53.389259 80.459248 137.891469 294.256353 1288.223791
2025-03-23 28.653974 38.554669 54.268935 84.358737 152.746901 367.082907 2771.623069
2025-03-30 27.389345 37.135639 52.830849 83.563238 156.239050 404.798216 5003.205547
2025-04-06 26.131634 35.642513 51.134247 82.012993 157.435686 435.484660 9946.560329
2025-04-13 24.543206 33.584022 48.401388 78.224921 152.392041 437.918943 16679.119725
2025-04-20 24.357260 33.782799 49.639039 82.916102 172.534532 597.323102 NaN
2025-04-27 24.189700 33.990537 50.903504 87.919450 196.373847 860.157169 NaN
2025-05-04 23.533841 33.329749 50.498244 89.067479 208.444294 1094.121676 NaN
2025-05-11 22.686438 32.290250 49.289478 88.129767 212.825054 1280.384334 NaN
2025-05-18 21.868914 31.257558 48.015507 86.861433 215.621968 1479.725664 NaN
2025-05-25 20.998141 30.090319 46.402845 84.556377 213.594546 1603.950693 NaN
2025-06-01 20.287047 29.168991 45.211836 83.179154 215.087552 1839.693369 NaN
2025-06-08 19.347490 27.810556 43.088508 79.211098 204.434866 1729.268157 NaN
2025-06-15 19.264242 27.951814 43.934422 83.014238 229.664631 3099.799856 NaN
2025-06-22 18.733409 27.272599 43.089099 82.238604 233.607534 3942.700206 NaN